Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(green dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 8-12 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 15days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 05 2020 | 531 | 14107 | 4 | 98 | 124 |
| August 06 2020 | 541 | 14189 | 4 | 105 | 132 |
| August 07 2020 | 563 | 14218 | 4 | 122 | 142 |
| August 08 2020 | 574 | 14732 | 4 | 126 | 151 |
| August 09 2020 | 588 | 14814 | 4 | 126 | 155 |
| August 10 2020 | 590 | 15225 | 4 | 116 | 157 |
| August 11 2020 | 596 | 15314 | 4 | 111 | 160 |
| August 12 2020 | 612 | 15463 | 4 | 109 | 171 |
| August 13 2020 | 629 | 15545 | 4 | 122 | 181 |
| August 14 2020 | 645 | 15803 | 4 | 128 | 183 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 15days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 05 2020 | 213 | 10063 | 0 | 21 | 48 |
| August 06 2020 | 218 | 10151 | 0 | 24 | 46 |
| August 07 2020 | 223 | 10250 | 0 | 25 | 46 |
| August 08 2020 | 227 | 10350 | 0 | 29 | 44 |
| August 09 2020 | 230 | 10416 | 0 | 27 | 42 |
| August 10 2020 | 239 | 10475 | 0 | 31 | 47 |
| August 11 2020 | 241 | 10505 | 0 | 32 | 47 |
| August 12 2020 | 244 | 10621 | 0 | 35 | 46 |
| August 13 2020 | 252 | 10687 | 0 | 42 | 54 |
| August 14 2020 | 259 | 10776 | 0 | 47 | 56 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 15days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 05 2020 | 273 | 5920 | 3 | 157 | 195 |
| August 06 2020 | 276 | 5936 | 3 | 151 | 194 |
| August 07 2020 | 282 | 6029 | 3 | 149 | 195 |
| August 08 2020 | 291 | 6109 | 3 | 146 | 195 |
| August 09 2020 | 293 | 6110 | 3 | 86 | 194 |
| August 10 2020 | 295 | 6122 | 3 | 67 | 179 |
| August 11 2020 | 296 | 6159 | 3 | 43 | 171 |
| August 12 2020 | 308 | 6207 | 3 | 53 | 175 |
| August 13 2020 | 315 | 6366 | 3 | 56 | 170 |
| August 14 2020 | 320 | 6584 | 3 | 56 | 113 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 15days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 05 2020 | 56940 | 944984 | 970 | 8113 | 12805 |
| August 06 2020 | 57779 | 961851 | 978 | 8362 | 12932 |
| August 07 2020 | 58768 | 974948 | 990 | 8589 | 12869 |
| August 08 2020 | 59933 | 986945 | 996 | 8884 | 13016 |
| August 09 2020 | 60554 | 993742 | 998 | 8446 | 12684 |
| August 10 2020 | 61061 | 1001402 | 998 | 8121 | 12234 |
| August 11 2020 | 61785 | 1014277 | 1006 | 7783 | 12368 |
| August 12 2020 | 62263 | 1023723 | 1011 | 7339 | 12084 |
| August 13 2020 | 63206 | 1035195 | 1018 | 7878 | 12157 |
| August 14 2020 | 64227 | 1044613 | 1025 | 8171 | 12119 |
Definitions
Case fatality rate:
Other information:
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 10.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.43 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1235"